Kochi: Even though the IMD predicts normal monsoon, but the meteorologists are debating that there might be floods in Kerala, which will be the third consecutive year of the flood.
Pradeep John, the independent weather forecaster who is also popularly known as Tamil Nadu Weatherman, has indicated in his Facebook posts that there is a possibility of Kerala facing intense rainfall for successive three years. Even the meteorologist expert are debating on the same line that there might be a catastrophic flood in Kerala in the third consecutive year. But the meteorologist in the Kerala State has disputed this argument by reasoning that the intensity of the downpour cannot predicted in advance. However, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has already forecasted a normal monsoon this year.
The state receiving over 2300mm rainfall cannot be ruled out, but it might not be translated into a flood, mainly if it is spread over four months. During the 2018 and 2019, there was a cloudburst which triggered the flood during those years compared to the normal spell of rainfall predicted this year by the IMD. The state received around 758.6mm rainfall within date 1st August to 9th August in 2018 and is said to be 164 percent above normal.
During the year 2018, the state received intense rainfall of 2517mm, and during the year of 2019, the state received 2310mm, and it won’t be surprising if the state records over 2300mm rainfall for the present year which was reported by Pradeep John on his Facebook. Over the last 120 years, the state has received over 2300mm rainfall as many as during the Southwest Monsoon.
S Sudevan, the former IMD chairman, has supported the argument of Abhilash that it was difficult to predict rainfall and flood prior two months in advance. The IMD has divided the country into four zones and, after analyzing the conditions of the area, have predicted an average rainfall.
However, there is a chance that among the one division will receive a heavy downpour. The climatic condition can be changed due to cyclones or depression. Mr. Sudevan also said that the forecast could only be made 10-15 days in advance, and they cannot predict anything now as they prepare the dynamic model and monitor the situation qualitatively.